Pistol rounds decide maps. AUC 0.9053.
PISTOL specialises in pistol and force-buy round prediction, trained on 500,000+ CS2 rounds from pro demos. With AUC 0.9053, it is the highest-accuracy domain model in the GESUS suite — a testament to how predictable pistol rounds are once you know each team's pistol win rate on CT and T sides, their eco conversion history, and current match state. PISTOL win probability directly predicts round 1, round 13, and force-buy outcomes.
Historical CT-side pistol round conversion
Historical T-side pistol round conversion
Pressure context — 0-0 vs 14-14 pistol is very different
Small differences (full pistol vs half) matter a lot
Prior round outcome creates pistol momentum
Feature importances reflect normalized split gain. Values are approximate.
PISTOL probability is expressed as the CT side's win probability for a pistol round. Most teams are in the 45–55% range; anything outside 40–60% is exceptional. A team with CT pistol win rate >60% is a pistol monster — they break eco chains and dominate the anti-eco. Combine with PHANTOM's eco win rate for full economy picture.
Live sub-model — predicts pistol/force-buy rounds; feeds into SPECTER and PHANTOM.
Launch on 500k rounds; AUC 0.9053; clean of leakage