The original baseline model. Now retired.
APEX was CounterQuant's first-generation match predictor, establishing the feature pipeline and calibration approach that ORACLE v2 now supersedes. APEX v3 introduced the team Elo feature family and rolling-window form tracking. Retired in favour of ORACLE v2 which uses 2× the features with improved calibration and stronger SoS modeling.
Solid=cumulative · dashed=rolling-20 · gray=50% baseline
Bars=actual win rate per confidence bucket · dashed=perfect calibration
Cumulative units across all shadow bets for this model
Primary team quality signal
Recent form rolling window
Head-to-head history
Experience proxy
Venue adjustment
Feature importances reflect normalized split gain. Values are approximate.
APEX is retired and its predictions are preserved in the ledger for historical backtesting only. Compare APEX accuracy vs ORACLE to see the improvement.
| Tier | Preds | Correct | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% |
| T2 | 19 | 14 | 73.7% |
| T3 | 23 | 13 | 56.5% |
| Month | Preds | Correct | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 47 | 29 | 61.7% |
| Date | Matchup | Tier | Predicted | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10 | SemperFi vs MGLBROS | T3 | SemperFi | ✓ |
| Jun 10 | Rooster vs DXA | T3 | Rooster | ✓ |
| Jun 9 | Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY | T3 | Ground Zero | ✓ |
| Jun 8 | HYPERSPIRIT vs INOX Division | T2 | INOX Division | ✓ |
| Jun 8 | Abyssal vs Ding Cuts | T3 | Abyssal | ✓ |
| Jun 8 | PsychoFace vs brazylijski luz | T2 | PsychoFace | ✗ |
| Jun 7 | Virtus.pro vs GenOne | T2 | Virtus.pro | ✓ |
| Jun 7 | KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats | T2 | KOLESIE | ✓ |
| Jun 7 | ENCE vs brazylijski luz | T2 | ENCE | ✗ |
| Jun 7 | Atreides vs HYPERSPIRIT | T2 | Atreides | ✗ |
| Jun 6 | Nuclear TigeRES vs AM | T3 | Nuclear TigeRES | ✓ |
| Jun 6 | OLDBOYS PL vs bankaPEPSI | T3 | bankaPEPSI | ✗ |
| Jun 6 | TDK vs Walczaki | T3 | TDK | ✓ |
| Jun 6 | ARCRED vs ASTRAL | T3 | ASTRAL | ✗ |
| Jun 6 | RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas | T2 | RUSTEC | ✗ |
| Jun 6 | Betclic vs INOX Division | T3 | INOX Division | ✓ |
| Jun 6 | G2 Ares vs aAa | T2 | G2 Ares | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC | T3 | RUSTEC | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | eternal premium vs Project 91 | T3 | Project 91 | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain | T3 | VP.Prodigy | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | NRG vs BIG | T1 | NRG | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | ZOTIX vs Banger Gang | T3 | Banger Gang | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | Fire Flux vs Arch | T3 | Arch | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | GenOne vs BIG Academy | T2 | BIG Academy | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | QUAZAR vs ReThink | T3 | QUAZAR | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | DONSTU vs COPH9K | T3 | DONSTU | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | XI vs LFO 6 | T3 | LFO 6 | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | Misa vs JUMBO | T3 | Misa | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | 100 Thieves vs Phantom | T2 | 100 Thieves | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | aAa vs ex-Zero Tenacity | T2 | ex-Zero Tenacity | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | ENRAGE vs ROUNDS | T3 | ROUNDS | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | Liquid vs FlyQuest | T1 | Liquid | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | Bushido Wildcats vs ex-RUBY | T2 | ex-RUBY | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | SPARTA vs CYBERSHOKE | T3 | SPARTA | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | Oxuji vs Misa | T2 | Oxuji | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | TYLOO vs Lynn Vision | T1 | TYLOO | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | Acend vs Ursa | T3 | Ursa | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | 1win vs Betclic | T2 | 1win | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | Leo vs Lilmix | T2 | Leo | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | Lavked vs MANA | T2 | Lavked | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds | T2 | Johnny Speeds | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | KOLESIE vs Atreides | T3 | Atreides | ✓ |
| Jun 5 | M80 vs NRG | T1 | NRG | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | Walczaki vs KOLESIE | T3 | KOLESIE | ✗ |
| Jun 5 | Liquid vs HEROIC | T1 | Liquid | ✓ |
| Jun 4 | HYPERSPIRIT vs HEROIC Academy | T2 | HEROIC Academy | ✓ |
| Jun 4 | AM vs ex-RUBY | T2 | ex-RUBY | ✓ |
Brier score 0=perfect, 0.25=random. Lower is better.
Retired — ORACLE v2 is the successor.
Initial 45-feature baseline; AUC 0.670
Added map-pool features; minor AUC lift
Final iteration before ORACLE succession