Where ORACLE signal meets sharp market price.
NEXUS blends ORACLE's internal probability with live Polymarket implied odds via log-odds averaging. When a liquid Polymarket market exists (>$5,000 volume), NEXUS weights the sharp money signal against ORACLE's model output, producing the tightest calibrated probability. The blend weight is dynamic: higher market volume increases Polymarket's weight. NEXUS identifies value bets as the delta between the blended probability and the raw market price — positive delta = model sees an edge.
Solid=cumulative · dashed=rolling-20 · gray=50% baseline
Bars=actual win rate per confidence bucket · dashed=perfect calibration
Cumulative units across all shadow bets for this model
Internal model signal (converted to log-odds space)
Market-implied probability from current YES/NO prices
Dynamic weight scaling with log($volume)
Stale markets downweighted if >48h from match
Feature importances reflect normalized split gain. Values are approximate.
NEXUS edge = NEXUS probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means CounterQuant rates the team higher than the market. The shadow bet system bets on positive-edge predictions using half-Kelly sizing. A large positive NEXUS edge (>5pp) is a strong signal; values under 2pp are noise.
| Tier | Preds | Correct | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | 17 | 9 | 52.9% |
| T2 | 38 | 18 | 47.4% |
| T3 | 57 | 35 | 61.4% |
| Month | Preds | Correct | Acc |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | 112 | 62 | 55.4% |
| Date | Matchup | Tier | Predicted | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21 |
ex-RUBY vs TDK
Market price -0.094
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.305
team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.272
|
T2 | TDK | ✓ |
| Jun 21 |
FURIA vs Falcons
Market price -0.103
Glicko2 rating -1.059
Tier-1 Elo +1.030
|
T1 | Falcons | ✓ |
| Jun 21 |
ENERGYULTRA vs roamsfiest
Market price -0.162
Overpass Elo +0.186
team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.181
|
T3 | ENERGYULTRA | ✗ |
| Jun 21 |
TDK vs 100 Thieves
Market price -0.383
team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.271
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.266
|
T2 | TDK | ✓ |
| Jun 21 |
ReThink vs roamsfiest
Market price -0.067
team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.202
team2 result volatility 90d +0.180
|
T3 | ReThink | ✓ |
| Jun 21 |
Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY
Market price -0.044
Overpass Elo -0.258
team1 avoid rate inferno 90d +0.197
|
T2 | Virtus.pro | ✗ |
| Jun 21 |
Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA
Market price -0.297
team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.194
team1 wr mirage 30d +0.191
|
T3 | Lilmix | ✗ |
| Jun 21 |
INFINITE vs INOX Division
Market price -0.333
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.495
team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.316
|
T2 | INFINITE | ✓ |
| Jun 20 |
Spirit vs Falcons
Market price -0.348
Tier-1 Elo +1.018
Glicko2 rating +0.914
|
T1 | Spirit | ✓ |
| Jun 20 |
GenOne vs 100 Thieves
Market price -0.491
team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.302
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.291
|
T2 | GenOne | ✗ |
| Jun 20 |
QUAZAR vs ReThink
Market price -0.027
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.296
team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.184
|
T3 | QUAZAR | ✓ |
| Jun 20 |
Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY
Market price +0.129
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.201
team2 wr when forced mirage -0.186
|
T2 | Gentle Mates | ✗ |
| Jun 20 |
1win vs Virtus.pro
Market price -0.152
team2 elo lan -0.542
team2 elo overpass +0.312
|
T2 | 1win | ✗ |
| Jun 20 |
KOLESIE vs INOX Division
Market price -0.285
team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.310
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.283
|
T2 | KOLESIE | ✓ |
| Jun 20 |
Nemesis vs TDK
Market price -0.054
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.303
team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.282
|
T2 | Nemesis | ✓ |
| Jun 20 |
INFINITE vs Walczaki
Market price -0.197
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.507
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.273
|
T2 | INFINITE | ✗ |
| Jun 19 |
Falcons vs Vitality
Market price +0.058
Tier-1 Elo +1.016
Glicko2 rating -0.785
|
T1 | Falcons | ✓ |
| Jun 19 |
K27 vs Virtus.pro
Market price -0.130
team2 elo lan -0.551
team2 elo overpass +0.326
|
T2 | K27 | ✗ |
| Jun 19 |
G2 vs Spirit
Market price +0.219
Tier-1 Elo +0.971
team2 glicko2 rating -0.775
|
T1 | G2 | ✗ |
| Jun 19 |
1win vs INOX Division
Market price -0.157
team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.308
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.297
|
T2 | 1win | ✓ |
| Jun 19 |
INFINITE vs ex-RUBY
Market price +0.102
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.497
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.221
|
T2 | INFINITE | ✗ |
| Jun 18 |
9z vs FURIA
Market price -0.253
Tier-1 Elo +1.041
team2 glicko2 rating +0.866
|
T1 | 9z | ✗ |
| Jun 18 |
Nemesis vs Bebop
Market price -0.230
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.284
team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.218
|
T2 | Nemesis | ✓ |
| Jun 18 |
HOTU vs GenOne
Market price -0.057
team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.294
Overpass Elo +0.232
|
T2 | HOTU | ✗ |
| Jun 18 |
TDK vs Walczaki
Market price -0.090
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.258
team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.248
|
T2 | TDK | ✗ |
| Jun 18 |
Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE
Market price +0.038
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.267
team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.182
|
T2 | Gentle Mates | ✓ |
| Jun 18 |
Ground Zero vs Rooster
Market price +0.289
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.512
team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.410
|
T3 | Ground Zero | ✗ |
| Jun 18 |
TDK vs Ursa
Market price +0.030
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.268
team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.243
|
T2 | TDK | ✓ |
| Jun 17 |
KOLESIE vs illwill
Market price -0.172
team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.200
Tier-1 Elo -0.174
|
T2 | KOLESIE | ✗ |
| Jun 17 |
Nuclear TigeRES vs Nemesis
Market price -0.377
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.533
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.282
|
T3 | Nuclear TigeRES | ✓ |
| Jun 17 |
SPARTA vs Bebop
Market price -0.225
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.284
team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.216
|
T2 | SPARTA | ✗ |
| Jun 17 |
SPARTA vs INOX Division
Market price -0.192
team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.305
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.296
|
T2 | SPARTA | ✗ |
| Jun 17 |
TDK vs Nemesis
Market price -0.155
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.258
team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.238
|
T3 | TDK | ✓ |
| Jun 17 |
Nuclear TigeRES vs K27
Market price +0.039
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.520
team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.266
|
T3 | Nuclear TigeRES | ✓ |
| Jun 16 |
KOLESIE vs GenOne
Market price -0.077
team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.298
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.231
|
T2 | KOLESIE | ✗ |
| Jun 16 |
Nemesis vs INFINITE
Market price +0.005
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.252
team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.246
|
T3 | Nemesis | ✓ |
| Jun 16 |
K27 vs 100 Thieves
Market price -0.428
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.287
team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.275
|
T3 | K27 | ✓ |
| Jun 16 |
illwill vs ex-RUBY
Market price -0.217
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.244
team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.178
|
T2 | illwill | ✗ |
| Jun 16 |
Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES
Market price -0.240
team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.287
team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.284
|
T3 | Gentle Mates | ✗ |
| Jun 16 |
Ground Zero vs Rooster
Market price +0.273
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.510
team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.416
|
T3 | Rooster | ✗ |
| Jun 16 |
HOTU vs TDK
Market price -0.345
team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.265
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.248
|
T3 | HOTU | ✗ |
| Jun 15 |
ReThink vs Wingman
Market price -0.270
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.302
team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.234
|
T3 | ReThink | ✓ |
| Jun 15 |
Natus Vincere vs G2
Market price +0.167
Tier-1 Elo +1.062
Glicko2 rating -1.029
|
T1 | Natus Vincere | ✗ |
| Jun 15 |
SPARTA vs G2 Ares
Market price -0.255
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.297
team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.212
|
T2 | SPARTA | ✓ |
| Jun 15 |
INFINITE vs ex-RUBY
Market price -0.204
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.310
team1 pre patch wr -0.280
|
T3 | INFINITE | ✓ |
| Jun 15 |
Bebop vs RUSTEC
Market price -0.124
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.478
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.220
|
T2 | RUSTEC | ✓ |
| Jun 15 |
Walczaki vs G2 Ares
Market price -0.137
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.499
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.290
|
T2 | Walczaki | ✓ |
| Jun 15 |
Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY
Market price -0.087
team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.418
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.245
|
T3 | Ground Zero | ✓ |
| Jun 15 |
TDK vs Young Ninjas
Market price -0.020
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.311
team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.231
|
T2 | TDK | ✓ |
| Jun 15 |
Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar
Market price +0.382
team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.265
team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.219
|
T3 | Marsborne | ✓ |
Brier score 0=perfect, 0.25=random. Lower is better.
Preferred over ORACLE when a liquid Polymarket market exists (>$5k volume).
Fixed 50/50 ORACLE-market blend
Dynamic liquidity-weighted blending; Kelly bet sizing on NEXUS edge