NEXUS v2 LIVE

Where ORACLE signal meets sharp market price.

119
7 pending
55.4%
112 settled
-89.6%
-51.6u
40.0%
10 bets

NEXUS blends ORACLE's internal probability with live Polymarket implied odds via log-odds averaging. When a liquid Polymarket market exists (>$5,000 volume), NEXUS weights the sharp money signal against ORACLE's model output, producing the tightest calibrated probability. The blend weight is dynamic: higher market volume increases Polymarket's weight. NEXUS identifies value bets as the delta between the blended probability and the raw market price — positive delta = model sees an edge.

Solid=cumulative · dashed=rolling-20 · gray=50% baseline

Bars=actual win rate per confidence bucket · dashed=perfect calibration

Cumulative units across all shadow bets for this model

ORACLE log-odds 45%

Internal model signal (converted to log-odds space)

Polymarket implied prob 40%

Market-implied probability from current YES/NO prices

Market liquidity weight 10%

Dynamic weight scaling with log($volume)

Market age penalty 5%

Stale markets downweighted if >48h from match

Feature importances reflect normalized split gain. Values are approximate.

NEXUS edge = NEXUS probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means CounterQuant rates the team higher than the market. The shadow bet system bets on positive-edge predictions using half-Kelly sizing. A large positive NEXUS edge (>5pp) is a strong signal; values under 2pp are noise.

TierPredsCorrectAcc
T1 17 9 52.9%
T2 38 18 47.4%
T3 57 35 61.4%
MonthPredsCorrectAcc
Jun 2026 112 62 55.4%
Date Matchup Tier Predicted Result
Jun 21 ex-RUBY vs TDK
Market price -0.094 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.305 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.272
T2 TDK
Jun 21 FURIA vs Falcons
Market price -0.103 Glicko2 rating -1.059 Tier-1 Elo +1.030
T1 Falcons
Jun 21 ENERGYULTRA vs roamsfiest
Market price -0.162 Overpass Elo +0.186 team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.181
T3 ENERGYULTRA
Jun 21 TDK vs 100 Thieves
Market price -0.383 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.271 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.266
T2 TDK
Jun 21 ReThink vs roamsfiest
Market price -0.067 team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.202 team2 result volatility 90d +0.180
T3 ReThink
Jun 21 Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY
Market price -0.044 Overpass Elo -0.258 team1 avoid rate inferno 90d +0.197
T2 Virtus.pro
Jun 21 Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA
Market price -0.297 team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.194 team1 wr mirage 30d +0.191
T3 Lilmix
Jun 21 INFINITE vs INOX Division
Market price -0.333 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.495 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.316
T2 INFINITE
Jun 20 Spirit vs Falcons
Market price -0.348 Tier-1 Elo +1.018 Glicko2 rating +0.914
T1 Spirit
Jun 20 GenOne vs 100 Thieves
Market price -0.491 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.302 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.291
T2 GenOne
Jun 20 QUAZAR vs ReThink
Market price -0.027 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.296 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.184
T3 QUAZAR
Jun 20 Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY
Market price +0.129 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.201 team2 wr when forced mirage -0.186
T2 Gentle Mates
Jun 20 1win vs Virtus.pro
Market price -0.152 team2 elo lan -0.542 team2 elo overpass +0.312
T2 1win
Jun 20 KOLESIE vs INOX Division
Market price -0.285 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.310 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.283
T2 KOLESIE
Jun 20 Nemesis vs TDK
Market price -0.054 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.303 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.282
T2 Nemesis
Jun 20 INFINITE vs Walczaki
Market price -0.197 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.507 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.273
T2 INFINITE
Jun 19 Falcons vs Vitality
Market price +0.058 Tier-1 Elo +1.016 Glicko2 rating -0.785
T1 Falcons
Jun 19 K27 vs Virtus.pro
Market price -0.130 team2 elo lan -0.551 team2 elo overpass +0.326
T2 K27
Jun 19 G2 vs Spirit
Market price +0.219 Tier-1 Elo +0.971 team2 glicko2 rating -0.775
T1 G2
Jun 19 1win vs INOX Division
Market price -0.157 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.308 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.297
T2 1win
Jun 19 INFINITE vs ex-RUBY
Market price +0.102 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.497 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.221
T2 INFINITE
Jun 18 9z vs FURIA
Market price -0.253 Tier-1 Elo +1.041 team2 glicko2 rating +0.866
T1 9z
Jun 18 Nemesis vs Bebop
Market price -0.230 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.284 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.218
T2 Nemesis
Jun 18 HOTU vs GenOne
Market price -0.057 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.294 Overpass Elo +0.232
T2 HOTU
Jun 18 TDK vs Walczaki
Market price -0.090 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.258 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.248
T2 TDK
Jun 18 Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE
Market price +0.038 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.267 team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.182
T2 Gentle Mates
Jun 18 Ground Zero vs Rooster
Market price +0.289 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.512 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.410
T3 Ground Zero
Jun 18 TDK vs Ursa
Market price +0.030 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.268 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.243
T2 TDK
Jun 17 KOLESIE vs illwill
Market price -0.172 team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.200 Tier-1 Elo -0.174
T2 KOLESIE
Jun 17 Nuclear TigeRES vs Nemesis
Market price -0.377 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.533 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.282
T3 Nuclear TigeRES
Jun 17 SPARTA vs Bebop
Market price -0.225 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.284 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.216
T2 SPARTA
Jun 17 SPARTA vs INOX Division
Market price -0.192 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.305 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.296
T2 SPARTA
Jun 17 TDK vs Nemesis
Market price -0.155 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.258 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.238
T3 TDK
Jun 17 Nuclear TigeRES vs K27
Market price +0.039 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.520 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.266
T3 Nuclear TigeRES
Jun 16 KOLESIE vs GenOne
Market price -0.077 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.298 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.231
T2 KOLESIE
Jun 16 Nemesis vs INFINITE
Market price +0.005 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.252 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.246
T3 Nemesis
Jun 16 K27 vs 100 Thieves
Market price -0.428 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.287 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.275
T3 K27
Jun 16 illwill vs ex-RUBY
Market price -0.217 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.244 team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.178
T2 illwill
Jun 16 Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES
Market price -0.240 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.287 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.284
T3 Gentle Mates
Jun 16 Ground Zero vs Rooster
Market price +0.273 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.510 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.416
T3 Rooster
Jun 16 HOTU vs TDK
Market price -0.345 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.265 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.248
T3 HOTU
Jun 15 ReThink vs Wingman
Market price -0.270 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.302 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.234
T3 ReThink
Jun 15 Natus Vincere vs G2
Market price +0.167 Tier-1 Elo +1.062 Glicko2 rating -1.029
T1 Natus Vincere
Jun 15 SPARTA vs G2 Ares
Market price -0.255 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.297 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.212
T2 SPARTA
Jun 15 INFINITE vs ex-RUBY
Market price -0.204 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.310 team1 pre patch wr -0.280
T3 INFINITE
Jun 15 Bebop vs RUSTEC
Market price -0.124 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.478 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.220
T2 RUSTEC
Jun 15 Walczaki vs G2 Ares
Market price -0.137 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.499 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.290
T2 Walczaki
Jun 15 Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY
Market price -0.087 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.418 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.245
T3 Ground Zero
Jun 15 TDK vs Young Ninjas
Market price -0.020 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.311 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.231
T2 TDK
Jun 15 Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar
Market price +0.382 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.265 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.219
T3 Marsborne
Jun 14 Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar
Market price -0.014 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.253 Overpass Elo +0.211
T3 Festina Lente
Jun 14 Natus Vincere vs Falcons
Market price -0.053 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.503 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.265
T1 Natus Vincere
Jun 14 Metizport vs Alliance
Market price +0.023 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.334 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.182
T3 Metizport
Jun 14 Ursa vs GenOne
Market price -0.013 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.350 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.279
T2 GenOne
Jun 14 illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES
Market price -0.465 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.263 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.242
T3 illwill
Jun 14 INFINITE vs Virtus.pro
Market price -0.248 team1 pre patch wr -0.302 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.295
T2 INFINITE
Jun 14 fnatic vs Alliance
Market price -0.308 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.333 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.233
T3 Alliance
Jun 14 ex-RUBY vs INOX Division
Market price -0.157 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.320 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.264
T2 ex-RUBY
Jun 14 1win vs TDK
Market price -0.221 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.284 Overpass Elo +0.243
T3 TDK
Jun 14 Nexus vs Alliance
Market price -0.462 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.325 team1 wr mirage 30d +0.234
T3 Nexus
Jun 14 fnatic vs Metizport
Market price +0.268 team2 elo anubis -0.227 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.205
T3 fnatic
Jun 14 HOTU vs KOLESIE
Market price -0.100 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.250 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.239
T3 HOTU
Jun 14 illwill vs Virtus.pro
Market price -0.179 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.294 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.279
T2 Virtus.pro
Jun 14 BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance
Market price -0.575 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.470 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.279
T3 BASEMENT BOYS
Jun 14 Nexus vs Noir Verse
Market price -0.115 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.285 team1 pre patch wr -0.238
T3 Nexus
Jun 14 K27 vs Walczaki
Market price -0.285 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.257 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.205
T3 K27
Jun 14 Marsborne vs Festina Lente
Market price +0.012 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.266 team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.182
T3 Marsborne
Jun 14 Marsborne vs Overtake Sector
Market price +0.272 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.193 Inferno pick rate -0.177
T3 Marsborne
Jun 14 Falcons vs Monte
Market price -0.088 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.485 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.289
T1 Falcons
Jun 14 Vitality vs MOUZ
Market price -0.113 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.246 team1 wr mirage 30d +0.246
T1 Vitality
Jun 14 DETONATE vs Iowa Stormboar
Market price -0.046 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.513 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.226
T3 DETONATE
Jun 13 Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake Sector
Market price -0.282 Overpass Elo +0.260 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.173
T3 Iowa Stormboar
Jun 13 DETONATE vs Wanted Goons
Market price -0.047 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.494 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.235
T3 Wanted Goons
Jun 13 aimclub vs Noir Verse
Market price +0.193 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.310 Overpass Elo +0.258
T3 aimclub
Jun 13 Washed vs MASONIC
Market price +0.204 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.484 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.446
T3 MASONIC
Jun 13 MASQ vs STATE
Market price -0.398 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.287 team2 elo overpass +0.236
T3 STATE
Jun 13 KOLESIE vs Bebop
Market price +0.003 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.214 team1 avoid rate inferno 90d +0.207
T2 KOLESIE
Jun 13 The Last Resort vs Dripmen
Market price -0.080 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.255 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.211
T3 The Last Resort
Jun 13 Nexus vs Metizport
Market price +0.201 team2 elo anubis -0.223 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.203
T3 Nexus
Jun 13 aimclub vs PURE
Market price -0.242 Overpass Elo +0.242 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.218
T3 PURE
Jun 13 fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS
Market price +0.504 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.242 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.234
T3 fnatic
Jun 13 STATE vs MASONIC
Market price -0.024 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.437 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.348
T3 STATE
Jun 13 RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy
Market price +0.019 Overpass Elo -0.215 team2 elo nuke -0.179
T2 RUSTEC
Jun 13 MASQ vs Washed
Market price -0.547 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.205 Overpass Elo +0.182
T3 Washed
Jun 13 fnatic vs aimclub
Market price +0.018 team2 elo overpass -0.211 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.206
T3 fnatic
Jun 13 atputies vs Noir Verse
Market price -0.510 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.513 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.290
T3 atputies
Jun 13 Entropy vs Gatorian
Market price +0.097 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.520 team1 elo nuke -0.243
T3 Entropy
Jun 13 struggletony vs MASONIC
Market price +0.269 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.511 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.441
T3 MASONIC
Jun 13 Metizport vs atputies
Market price +0.208 team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.198 team1 elo dust2 -0.162
T3 Metizport
Jun 13 aimclub vs 6666
Market price +0.508 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.373 Overpass Elo +0.284
T3 6666
Jun 13 Sashi Academy vs Washed
Market price -0.348 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.583 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.251
T3 Washed
Jun 13 fnatic vs Minkens finest
Market price +0.417 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.198 Overpass Elo +0.182
T3 fnatic
Jun 13 Alliance vs SAAB
Market price +0.175 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.264 Overpass Elo +0.238
T3 Alliance
Jun 13 DETONATE vs Festina Lente
Market price -0.033 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.266 team2 forced rate inferno 90d +0.186
T3 DETONATE
Jun 13 Iowa Stormboar vs Club 333
Market price -0.157 team1 pre patch wr -0.277 Overpass Elo +0.249
T3 Iowa Stormboar
Jun 11 Falcons vs G2
Market price +0.017 30-day form +0.154 Elo edge -0.086
T1 Falcons
Jun 11 FURIA vs B8
Market price +0.265 Elo edge -0.150 Map-pool Elo +0.132
T1 FURIA
Jun 11 Walczaki vs INOX Division
Market price +0.030 Map-pool Elo -0.354 econ anti eco wr t1 -0.107
T3 INOX Division
Jun 11 KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro
Market price -0.233 Schedule strength +0.176 Elo edge -0.148
T2 Virtus.pro
Jun 11 PARIVISION vs 9z
Market price +0.125 Pistol rounds +0.167 Buy power -0.140
T1 PARIVISION
Jun 10 Wingman vs eternal premium
Market price +0.030 Map-pool Elo +0.173 CT-side econ -0.169
T3 eternal premium
Jun 10 illwill vs G2 Ares
Market price +0.200 CT-side econ -0.180 30-day form -0.134
T2 illwill
Jun 10 Ursa vs HEROIC Academy
Market price +0.087 Map-pool Elo +0.324 Elo edge -0.282
T2 Ursa
Jun 10 G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas
Market price -0.015 Schedule strength -0.132 Map-pool Elo -0.095
T2 Young Ninjas
Jun 10 SPARTA vs Atreides
Market price +0.120 econ defuse rate diff -0.216 Schedule strength -0.142
T3 SPARTA
Jun 10 Ground Zero vs Masked Regime
Market price +0.257 Map-pool Elo +0.303 Elo edge -0.166
T3 Ground Zero
Jun 6 B8 vs M80
Market price +0.237 econ defuse rate diff -0.222 Buy power +0.219
T1 B8
Jun 6 G2 vs Monte
Market price +0.375 wr10 t2 -0.120 Rest days +0.097
T1 G2
Jun 6 Astralis vs 9z
Market price +0.032 econ anti eco wr t1 -0.105 Map-pool Elo +0.103
T1 Astralis
Jun 6 G2 vs M80
Market price +0.260 Map-pool Elo -0.347 econ anti eco wr t1 -0.096
T1 M80
Jun 6 Johnny Speeds vs 1win
Market price -0.258 Schedule strength -0.143 Pistol rounds +0.133
T2 1win
Jun 6 9z vs FlyQuest
Market price +0.042 econ defuse rate diff +0.316 econ plant rate diff +0.124
T1 9z
Predictions 119
Accuracy 55.4%
Shadow ROI -89.6%
Bet Hit Rate 40.0%
Shadow P&L -51.6u
Brier Score 0.2403
Quality Fair

Brier score 0=perfect, 0.25=random. Lower is better.

First prediction Jun 5, 2026
Last prediction Jun 22, 2026
Active span 17d
Avg / week 46.1 preds

Preferred over ORACLE when a liquid Polymarket market exists (>$5k volume).

v1 2026-Q1

Fixed 50/50 ORACLE-market blend

v2 2026-Q2

Dynamic liquidity-weighted blending; Kelly bet sizing on NEXUS edge