PHANTOM — CQ-GESUS Models

PREDICTIONS SHADOW BETS MODELS VERIFY

PHANTOM v2 DEPLOYED

Economy & Round Type · Gradient Boosting

Economy specialist. Knows who wins when it counts.

AUC (T1)

0.7625

held-out test set

239

Predictions

21 pending

59.6%

Accuracy

218 settled

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Shadow ROI

0.0u

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Bet Hit Rate

0 bets

ABOUT THIS MODEL

PHANTOM is CounterQuant's economy and round-type specialist. Trained on 500,000+ CS2 rounds parsed from pro demos, PHANTOM predicts round outcome based on economy state (full-buy vs eco vs force), CT/T side, and recent momentum. It produces win probabilities broken out by buy type, enabling tactical insights beyond simple win/loss rates: who wins CT full-buys? Who thrives on eco rounds? Which team converts T side executes best?

PERFORMANCE CHARTS

Accuracy Over Time

Solid=cumulative · dashed=rolling-20 · gray=50% baseline

Reliability Diagram

Bars=actual win rate per confidence bucket · dashed=perfect calibration

TOP FEATURE DRIVERS

CT full-buy win rate (rolling 20) 24%

CT side rifle-round win rate from demo data

T full-buy win rate (rolling 20) 22%

T side rifle-round win rate

T execution rate 18%

Bomb plants per full-buy T round — aggression signal

CT anti-execute win rate 16%

CT wins when T has full buy — defensive efficiency

Eco round win rate differential 12%

Clutch-play performance on underpowered rounds

Force-buy conversion rate 8%

Efficiency when gambling on a force

Feature importances reflect normalized split gain. Values are approximate.

HOW TO INTERPRET

PHANTOM scores like a win-rate dashboard broken by economy state. A team with strong PHANTOM CT full-buy score (>55%) and weak T execution (<30%) is a defensive fortress — great on CT-sided maps (Nuke, Inferno), risky on T-sided maps. The economy differentials feed into TITAN as tactical edge features.

PER-TIER BREAKDOWN

Tier	Preds	Correct	Acc
T1	32	21	65.6%
T2	71	41	57.7%
T3	115	68	59.1%

MONTHLY PERFORMANCE

Month	Preds	Correct	Acc
Jun 2026	218	130	59.6%

FULL PREDICTION HISTORY (218 settled)

Date	Matchup	Tier	Predicted	Win Prob	Edge	Result
Jun 22	Chicken Coop vs Club 333 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.422 team1 match hour local -0.277 Overpass Elo +0.259	T3	Chicken Coop	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 21	QUAZAR vs Fire Flux team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.405 Glicko2 rating +0.394 team2 glicko2 rating -0.341	T3	QUAZAR	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 21	ex-RUBY vs TDK team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.514 Glicko2 rating +0.371 team2 elo nuke -0.252	T2	ex-RUBY	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 21	FURIA vs Falcons Glicko2 rating -0.927 Overpass Elo -0.888 team2 glicko2 rating +0.785	T1	Falcons	63.3%	+26.6%	✓
Jun 21	ENERGYULTRA vs roamsfiest Overpass Elo +0.276 team2 elo inferno +0.188 team2 elo overpass -0.175	T3	ENERGYULTRA	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 21	FOKUS vs Phantom team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.491 Glicko2 rating +0.472 team1 elo inferno +0.180	T2	FOKUS	79.5%	+59.1%	✗
Jun 21	TDK vs 100 Thieves team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.411 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.311 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.297	T2	TDK	93.9%	+87.8%	✓
Jun 21	Team Germany vs Team Poland Overpass Elo +0.281 team2 elo overpass -0.181 team2 elo inferno +0.178	T3	Team Germany	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 21	ReThink vs roamsfiest opening kill rate diff -0.295 Overpass Elo +0.271 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.246	T3	roamsfiest	57.1%	+14.3%	✗
Jun 21	Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY Overpass Elo -0.591 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.347 team2 glicko2 rating -0.269	T2	ex-RUBY	65.7%	+31.3%	✓
Jun 21	Echo vs K27 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.399 team2 glicko2 rating -0.280 Overpass Elo +0.276	T2	Echo	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 21	Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA Glicko2 rating +0.404 opening kill rate diff -0.288 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.221	T3	ENERGYULTRA	52.5%	+5.0%	✓
Jun 21	INFINITE vs INOX Division team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.493 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.473 Glicko2 rating +0.403	T2	INFINITE	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 21	Chicken Coop vs Overtake Sector team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.435 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.276 opening kill rate diff -0.269	T3	Chicken Coop	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 21	Villainous vs Club 333 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.434 Overpass Elo +0.287 team1 match hour local -0.275	T3	Club 333	52.5%	+5.0%	✓
Jun 20	Spirit vs Falcons Glicko2 rating +0.894 Overpass Elo -0.749 Tier-1 Elo +0.624	T1	Spirit	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 20	GenOne vs 100 Thieves team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.451 Glicko2 rating +0.427 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.285	T2	GenOne	93.9%	+87.8%	✗
Jun 20	QUAZAR vs ReThink team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.484 Glicko2 rating +0.397 opening kill rate diff -0.301	T3	QUAZAR	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 20	Fire Flux vs WBT Glicko2 rating +0.437 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.403 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.367	T3	Fire Flux	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 20	Phantom vs Walczaki team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.446 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.343 Overpass Elo +0.276	T2	Phantom	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 20	Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.372 team2 glicko2 rating -0.291 Glicko2 rating +0.265	T2	Gentle Mates	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 20	K27 vs Acend Glicko2 rating +0.417 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.371 opening kill rate diff -0.284	T2	K27	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 20	Aurora vs FURIA team2 glicko2 rating +1.057 Glicko2 rating -0.805 Tier-1 Elo +0.703	T1	Aurora	86.3%	+72.6%	✗
Jun 20	Echo vs Inner Circle team2 elo overpass -0.640 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.454 Overpass Elo +0.277	T2	Echo	54.4%	+8.7%	✓
Jun 20	1win vs Virtus.pro team2 elo overpass +0.694 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.446 Glicko2 rating +0.392	T2	1win	79.5%	+59.1%	✗
Jun 20	KOLESIE vs INOX Division team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.451 Overpass Elo +0.252 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.214	T2	KOLESIE	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 20	FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Glicko2 rating +0.476 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.471 opening kill rate diff -0.267	T2	FOKUS	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 20	Nemesis vs TDK team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.517 Overpass Elo +0.283 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.264	T2	Nemesis	57.3%	+14.5%	✓
Jun 20	INFINITE vs Walczaki team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.448 Glicko2 rating +0.408 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.376	T2	INFINITE	86.3%	+72.6%	✗
Jun 20	Club 333 vs Playing for fun team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.432 opening kill rate diff -0.296 Overpass Elo +0.282	T3	Playing for fun	61.1%	+22.2%	✗
Jun 20	Brahmas vs Overtake Sector team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.364 Overpass Elo +0.287 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.253	T3	Brahmas	81.8%	+63.6%	✗
Jun 20	Chicken Coop vs dice opening kill rate diff -0.282 team1 match hour local -0.274 Overpass Elo +0.265	T3	Chicken Coop	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 20	Villainous vs DETONATE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.381 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.353 team1 match hour local -0.304	T3	Villainous	51.3%	+2.7%	✓
Jun 19	Falcons vs Vitality Tier-1 Elo +0.823 team2 glicko2 rating -0.717 Glicko2 rating -0.680	T1	Falcons	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 19	K27 vs Virtus.pro team2 elo overpass +0.667 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.405 Glicko2 rating +0.398	T2	K27	79.5%	+59.1%	✗
Jun 19	ReThink vs BAKS team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.436 Overpass Elo +0.275 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.231	T3	ReThink	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 19	Acend vs BET-M team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.433 Glicko2 rating +0.422 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.274	T2	Acend	93.3%	+86.7%	✓
Jun 19	Fire Flux vs NAVI Junior team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.458 team2 pre patch wr +0.435 Glicko2 rating +0.424	T3	Fire Flux	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 19	Arch vs WBT team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.422 opening kill rate diff -0.294 Overpass Elo +0.272	T3	Arch	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 19	G2 vs Spirit team2 elo overpass +0.793 Glicko2 rating -0.769 Tier-1 Elo +0.639	T1	Spirit	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 19	QUAZAR vs Hermine Glicko2 rating +0.411 opening kill rate diff -0.288 team1 adjusted wr 30d -0.217	T3	QUAZAR	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 19	1win vs INOX Division Glicko2 rating +0.412 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.407 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.266	T2	1win	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 19	WW vs CYBERSHOKE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.388 team2 elo overpass -0.249 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.244	T2	WW	81.8%	+63.6%	✗
Jun 19	Acend vs INOX Division team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.451 Glicko2 rating +0.427 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.215	T2	Acend	79.5%	+59.1%	✗
Jun 19	K27 vs SHISHKA team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.453 Glicko2 rating +0.412 Inferno pick rate +0.189	T2	K27	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 19	INFINITE vs ex-RUBY team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.413 Glicko2 rating +0.404 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.344	T2	INFINITE	51.3%	+2.7%	✗
Jun 19	Walczaki vs Oxuji team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.463 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.463 Overpass Elo +0.292	T2	Walczaki	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 19	Sashi vs KOLESIE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.371 team1 elo dust2 -0.251 team2 avoid rate inferno 90d -0.208	T2	Sashi	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 18	100 Thieves vs Leo team2 glicko2 rating -0.368 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.331 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.298	T2	100 Thieves	51.3%	+2.7%	✓
Jun 18	9z vs FURIA team2 glicko2 rating +0.961 Glicko2 rating -0.851 Overpass Elo -0.775	T1	9z	79.5%	+59.1%	✗
Jun 18	Inner Circle vs Spirit Academy team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.475 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.392 Glicko2 rating +0.298	T2	Inner Circle	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 18	Nemesis vs Bebop team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.420 Overpass Elo +0.302 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.203	T2	Nemesis	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 18	Echo vs KOLESIE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.449 team1 pre patch wr -0.403 Overpass Elo +0.280	T2	KOLESIE	61.1%	+22.2%	✗
Jun 18	INFINITE vs Oxuji team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.470 Glicko2 rating +0.413 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.356	T2	INFINITE	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 18	HOTU vs GenOne team2 glicko2 rating -0.348 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.314 Tier-1 Elo -0.223	T2	HOTU	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 18	Aurora vs BetBoom Glicko2 rating -0.860 Tier-1 Elo +0.737 team2 elo lan -0.363	T1	BetBoom	73.3%	+46.5%	✗
Jun 18	JiJieHao vs Phantom team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.385 team1 elo nuke -0.283 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.260	T2	Phantom	57.1%	+14.3%	✓
Jun 18	TDK vs Walczaki team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.348 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.303 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.288	T2	TDK	86.3%	+72.6%	✗
Jun 18	Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.443 Glicko2 rating +0.273 opening kill rate diff -0.257	T2	Gentle Mates	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 18	Ground Zero vs Rooster Glicko2 rating +0.440 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.415 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.310	T3	Ground Zero	81.8%	+63.6%	✗
Jun 18	FOKUS vs Noir Verse team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.475 Glicko2 rating +0.470 opening kill rate diff -0.281	T2	FOKUS	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 18	TDK vs Ursa team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.347 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.310 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.214	T2	TDK	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 17	KOLESIE vs illwill team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.333 team2 glicko2 rating -0.290 Overpass Elo +0.251	T2	KOLESIE	79.5%	+59.1%	✗
Jun 17	Nuclear TigeRES vs Nemesis Glicko2 rating +0.447 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.408 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.406	T3	Nuclear TigeRES	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 17	SPARTA vs Bebop Glicko2 rating +0.432 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.412 opening kill rate diff -0.295	T2	SPARTA	86.3%	+72.6%	✗
Jun 17	SPARTA vs INOX Division team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.442 Glicko2 rating +0.435 opening kill rate diff -0.290	T2	SPARTA	86.3%	+72.6%	✗
Jun 17	TDK vs Nemesis team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.334 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.305 team1 elo inferno +0.210	T3	TDK	93.9%	+87.8%	✓
Jun 17	PsychoFace vs Virtus.pro team2 elo overpass +0.644 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.443 team2 elo lan -0.350	T2	PsychoFace	79.5%	+59.1%	✗
Jun 17	Acend vs Lavked Glicko2 rating +0.451 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.432 team1 elo nuke -0.307	T2	Acend	54.4%	+8.7%	✓
Jun 17	Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 Glicko2 rating +0.442 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.401 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.359	T3	Nuclear TigeRES	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 17	Rooster vs DXA team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.433 Glicko2 rating +0.379 team2 glicko2 rating -0.337	T3	Rooster	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 16	KOLESIE vs GenOne team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.385 team2 glicko2 rating -0.338 Overpass Elo +0.250	T2	KOLESIE	79.5%	+59.1%	✗
Jun 16	Nemesis vs INFINITE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.436 team2 glicko2 rating -0.295 Overpass Elo +0.292	T3	Nemesis	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 16	PsychoFace vs Leo team2 glicko2 rating -0.358 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.335 Overpass Elo +0.266	T2	PsychoFace	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 16	K27 vs 100 Thieves team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.415 Glicko2 rating +0.413 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.371	T3	K27	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 16	illwill vs ex-RUBY team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.455 Glicko2 rating +0.361 team2 glicko2 rating -0.279	T2	illwill	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 16	Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.374 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.325 team2 glicko2 rating -0.290	T3	Gentle Mates	71.3%	+42.5%	✗
Jun 16	EAC vs KOLESIE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.411 team1 elo ancient -0.273 Glicko2 rating +0.258	T2	KOLESIE	52.5%	+5.0%	✓
Jun 16	Sashi vs HYPERSPIRIT team2 elo nuke -0.555 team1 pre patch wr -0.395 Glicko2 rating +0.387	T2	HYPERSPIRIT	61.1%	+22.2%	✗
Jun 16	MARKandLARRY vs DXA team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.422 team2 glicko2 rating -0.325 opening kill rate diff -0.310	T3	MARKandLARRY	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 16	HOTU vs TDK team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.396 team2 elo nuke -0.249 Tier-1 Elo -0.236	T3	HOTU	54.4%	+8.7%	✗
Jun 16	Ground Zero vs Rooster Glicko2 rating +0.441 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.422 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.385	T3	Ground Zero	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 15	Natus Vincere vs G2 Glicko2 rating -0.989 Tier-1 Elo +0.838 Overpass Elo -0.783	T1	G2	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 15	ReThink vs Wingman team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.405 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.351 Glicko2 rating +0.290	T3	ReThink	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 15	INFINITE vs ex-RUBY team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.487 Glicko2 rating +0.420 team1 pre patch wr -0.411	T3	INFINITE	51.3%	+2.7%	✓
Jun 15	SPARTA vs G2 Ares Glicko2 rating +0.436 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.416 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.276	T2	SPARTA	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 15	BetBoom vs FUT team2 glicko2 rating +0.503 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.460 Tier-1 Elo -0.373	T1	BetBoom	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 15	Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.471 Glicko2 rating +0.318 Overpass Elo +0.291	T3	Nemesis	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 15	Virtus.pro vs brazylijski luz Overpass Elo -0.585 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.346 team2 elo inferno +0.239	T2	brazylijski luz	55.2%	+10.3%	✗
Jun 15	Bebop vs RUSTEC team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.425 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.392 team2 glicko2 rating -0.283	T2	Bebop	54.4%	+8.7%	✗
Jun 15	9z vs The MongolZ Glicko2 rating -0.846 Tier-1 Elo +0.779 team2 glicko2 rating +0.770	T1	9z	54.4%	+8.7%	✓
Jun 15	100 Thieves vs Betclic team2 elo inferno +0.595 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.452 Glicko2 rating +0.375	T3	100 Thieves	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 15	Walczaki vs G2 Ares team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.505 Glicko2 rating +0.421 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.416	T2	Walczaki	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 15	Gentle Mates vs Acend Glicko2 rating +0.555 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.323 team2 glicko2 rating -0.261	T3	Gentle Mates	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 15	Rooster vs DXA Overpass Elo -0.606 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.317 team2 wr nuke 90d +0.298	T3	Rooster	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 15	Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY team2 pre patch wr +0.476 opening kill rate diff -0.255 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.244	T3	Ground Zero	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 15	TDK vs Young Ninjas Glicko2 rating +0.518 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.455 team2 elo inferno -0.382	T2	TDK	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 15	Brahmas vs Omen Overpass Elo +0.289 opening kill rate diff -0.286 Inferno pick rate +0.203	T3	Brahmas	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 15	Club 333 vs Olympus team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.475 opening kill rate diff -0.277 Overpass Elo +0.268	T3	Olympus	61.1%	+22.2%	✗
Jun 15	Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.345 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.260 team1 elo anubis -0.222	T3	Marsborne	51.3%	+2.7%	✓
Jun 14	Natus Vincere vs Falcons team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.365 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.353 Overpass Elo +0.280	T1	Natus Vincere	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.388 Overpass Elo +0.274 team2 glicko2 rating -0.266	T3	Festina Lente	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	Metizport vs Alliance team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.304 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.287 team2 elo overpass -0.250	T3	Metizport	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	Arch vs OLDBOYS PL team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.323 team2 glicko2 rating -0.321 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.284	T3	Arch	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 14	Ursa vs GenOne team2 elo dust2 -0.755 team2 glicko2 rating -0.448 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.343	T2	GenOne	63.3%	+26.6%	✓
Jun 14	illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.422 Glicko2 rating +0.386 team1 pre patch wr -0.309	T3	illwill	93.9%	+87.8%	✗
Jun 14	G2 vs Legacy team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.445 Overpass Elo +0.289 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.275	T1	G2	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 14	BetBoom vs Vitality team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.419 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.351 team2 wr nuke 90d +0.262	T1	BetBoom	86.3%	+72.6%	✗
Jun 14	ex-RUBY vs INOX Division team1 elo dust2 +0.412 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.377 team2 elo overpass -0.281	T2	ex-RUBY	86.3%	+72.6%	✗
Jun 14	fnatic vs Alliance team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.313 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.312 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.274	T3	fnatic	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	Aurora vs 9z team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.456 team2 glicko2 rating -0.288 opening kill rate diff -0.276	T1	Aurora	81.5%	+62.9%	✓
Jun 14	INFINITE vs Virtus.pro team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.438 Glicko2 rating +0.426 team1 pre patch wr -0.422	T2	INFINITE	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 14	1win vs TDK team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.402 team2 glicko2 rating -0.334 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.268	T3	1win	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	INFURITY vs VanirQuick team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.486 Inferno pick rate -0.287 opening kill rate diff -0.268	T3	VanirQuick	76.0%	+52.1%	✗
Jun 14	MOUZ vs FUT team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.420 Glicko2 rating +0.342 team2 avoid rate inferno 90d -0.182	T1	MOUZ	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	The MongolZ vs Monte team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.434 opening kill rate diff -0.299 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.224	T1	The MongolZ	51.3%	+2.7%	✓
Jun 14	Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.501 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.338 team2 elo dust2 +0.303	T2	Nuclear TigeRES	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	Nexus vs Alliance team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.376 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.298 team2 elo overpass -0.270	T3	Nexus	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	SPARTA vs Leo Glicko2 rating +0.427 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.417 Tier-1 Elo -0.294	T2	SPARTA	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 14	HOTU vs KOLESIE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.414 Glicko2 rating +0.345 team2 elo nuke -0.246	T3	HOTU	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 14	fnatic vs Metizport team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.420 Overpass Elo +0.279 team2 elo overpass -0.246	T3	fnatic	51.3%	+2.7%	✗
Jun 14	illwill vs Virtus.pro team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.418 Glicko2 rating +0.378 team1 pre patch wr -0.314	T2	illwill	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 14	K27 vs Walczaki team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.362 team1 elo nuke -0.342 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.302	T3	K27	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 14	Nexus vs Noir Verse team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.434 team1 pre patch wr -0.400 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.321	T3	Nexus	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 14	BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.473 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.464 Glicko2 rating +0.341	T3	BASEMENT BOYS	81.8%	+63.6%	✗
Jun 14	Marsborne vs Festina Lente team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.289 opening kill rate diff -0.253 team2 elo overpass -0.203	T3	Festina Lente	63.3%	+26.6%	✗
Jun 14	Omen vs Xiaoma Overpass Elo +0.277 team2 elo overpass -0.177 team2 avoid rate inferno 90d -0.175	T3	Omen	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 14	raisedbypixels vs Omen team1 pre patch wr -0.432 opening kill rate diff -0.298 Overpass Elo +0.268	T3	Omen	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 14	By Legends vs Gatorian team2 pre patch wr +0.489 Overpass Elo +0.271 team2 elo inferno +0.190	T3	By Legends	81.8%	+63.6%	✗
Jun 14	Natus Vincere vs The MongolZ team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.480 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.421 team1 pre patch wr -0.375	T1	Natus Vincere	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 14	Alliance vs Nexus opening kill rate diff -0.309 Glicko2 rating +0.293 team1 avoid rate ancient 90d +0.256	T3	Alliance	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	PURE vs Nexus team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.490 opening kill rate diff -0.275 Glicko2 rating -0.212	T3	Nexus	55.2%	+10.3%	✓
Jun 14	EAC vs Noir Verse team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.460 opening kill rate diff -0.291 Glicko2 rating +0.261	T3	Noir Verse	52.5%	+5.0%	✗
Jun 14	Falcons vs Monte team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.412 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.400 opening kill rate diff -0.275	T1	Falcons	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 14	Marsborne vs Overtake Sector team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.335 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.303 team1 match hour local -0.283	T3	Overtake Sector	52.5%	+5.0%	✗
Jun 14	Gatorian vs EAC team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.421 team1 pre patch wr -0.387 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.335	T3	Gatorian	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	BASEMENT BOYS vs By Legends Glicko2 rating +0.354 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.348 opening kill rate diff -0.287	T3	BASEMENT BOYS	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 14	PARIVISION vs Legacy team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.427 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.297 Overpass Elo +0.268	T1	PARIVISION	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	Vitality vs MOUZ team2 elo overpass +0.468 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.459 opening kill rate diff -0.286	T1	Vitality	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 14	Aurora vs G2 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.425 Overpass Elo +0.261 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.251	T1	Aurora	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 14	BetBoom vs FURIA team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.470 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.420 team1 avoid rate ancient 90d +0.218	T1	BetBoom	71.3%	+42.5%	✗
Jun 14	LAG vs Mount Olympus team1 elo dust2 +0.384 team1 match hour local -0.323 opening kill rate diff -0.272	T3	LAG	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	Wanted Goons vs Mount Olympus opening kill rate diff -0.300 Overpass Elo +0.237 team1 match hour local -0.190	T3	Wanted Goons	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	DETONATE vs Iowa Stormboar team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.422 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.333 Overpass Elo +0.293	T3	DETONATE	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 14	Spirit vs 9z team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.444 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.297 team2 glicko2 rating -0.284	T1	Spirit	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 13	Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake Sector team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.408 Glicko2 rating +0.404 opening kill rate diff -0.308	T3	Iowa Stormboar	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 13	Alliance vs EAC team2 elo overpass +0.303 Glicko2 rating +0.271 Overpass Elo +0.249	T3	Alliance	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 13	DETONATE vs Wanted Goons team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.432 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.406 team1 pre patch wr -0.333	T3	Wanted Goons	55.2%	+10.3%	✗
Jun 13	aimclub vs Noir Verse team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.452 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.322 Tier-1 Elo +0.268	T3	Noir Verse	52.5%	+5.0%	✓
Jun 13	MASQ vs STATE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.475 team2 elo overpass +0.419 Overpass Elo +0.284	T3	MASQ	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 13	KOLESIE vs Bebop team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.305 team1 elo dust2 -0.225 team1 elo nuke +0.222	T2	KOLESIE	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 13	Washed vs MASONIC team2 elo mirage -0.343 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.339 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.317	T3	MASONIC	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 13	Nexus vs Metizport team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.448 Overpass Elo +0.269 team2 elo overpass -0.262	T3	Nexus	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 13	Noir Verse vs Entropy team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.395 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.325 team2 glicko2 rating -0.297	T3	Noir Verse	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 13	The Last Resort vs Dripmen team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.344 opening kill rate diff -0.289 team2 wr nuke 90d +0.263	T3	The Last Resort	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 13	6666 vs Alliance team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.477 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.442 Overpass Elo +0.303	T3	6666	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 13	fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.448 Overpass Elo +0.282 opening kill rate diff -0.265	T3	fnatic	51.3%	+2.7%	✓
Jun 13	aimclub vs PURE team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.453 Tier-1 Elo +0.274 Overpass Elo +0.272	T3	PURE	63.3%	+26.6%	✗
Jun 13	PsychoFace vs G2 Ares Glicko2 rating +0.494 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.446 team1 elo ancient -0.317	T2	PsychoFace	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 13	Metizport vs EAC team2 elo overpass +0.287 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.272 team2 elo anubis -0.238	T3	Metizport	86.3%	+72.6%	✓
Jun 13	STATE vs MASONIC Overpass Elo -0.523 team2 elo mirage -0.358 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.321	T3	MASONIC	61.1%	+22.2%	✗
Jun 13	RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy Overpass Elo -0.417 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.311 team1 avoid rate ancient 90d +0.219	T2	RUSTEC	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 13	BASEMENT BOYS vs Entropy Glicko2 rating +0.342 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.338 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.328	T3	BASEMENT BOYS	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 13	MASQ vs Washed Overpass Elo +0.267 team1 avoid rate ancient 90d +0.258 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.224	T3	MASQ	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 13	SAAB vs PURE team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.454 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.349 team1 pre patch wr -0.346	T3	PURE	78.5%	+57.0%	✓
Jun 13	fnatic vs aimclub team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.329 team2 glicko2 rating +0.305 Overpass Elo +0.284	T3	fnatic	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 13	atputies vs Noir Verse team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.469 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.431 team1 pre patch wr -0.430	T3	atputies	51.3%	+2.7%	✗
Jun 13	Minkens finest vs 6666 team2 pre patch wr +0.457 team1 pre patch wr -0.410 Overpass Elo +0.294	T3	Minkens finest	81.8%	+63.6%	✗
Jun 13	Oxuji vs Misa team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.294 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.259 team2 glicko2 rating -0.251	T2	Oxuji	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 13	B8 vs FUT team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.441 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.409 Glicko2 rating +0.295	T1	B8	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 13	Entropy vs Gatorian Glicko2 rating +0.516 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.477 team1 elo nuke -0.349	T3	Gatorian	61.1%	+22.2%	✗
Jun 13	aimclub vs 6666 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.430 Overpass Elo +0.279 Tier-1 Elo +0.273	T3	6666	73.5%	+47.0%	✗
Jun 13	Metizport vs atputies opening kill rate diff -0.263 team1 elo nuke +0.227 team1 elo anubis +0.213	T3	Metizport	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 13	struggletony vs MASONIC team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.369 team2 elo mirage -0.358 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.331	T3	MASONIC	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 13	Sashi Academy vs Washed team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.504 opening kill rate diff -0.267 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.255	T3	Washed	63.3%	+26.6%	✓
Jun 13	Oxuji vs brazylijski luz team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.272 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.235 team1 elo dust2 -0.228	T2	Oxuji	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 13	Alliance vs SAAB opening kill rate diff -0.300 Glicko2 rating +0.295 Overpass Elo +0.254	T3	Alliance	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 13	fnatic vs Minkens finest Overpass Elo +0.287 opening kill rate diff -0.276 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.264	T3	fnatic	51.3%	+2.7%	✓
Jun 13	F5 vs Wanted Goons team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.348 Glicko2 rating +0.335 team1 match hour local -0.230	T3	F5	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 13	DETONATE vs Festina Lente Overpass Elo +0.274 opening kill rate diff -0.260 team2 elo overpass -0.192	T3	DETONATE	51.3%	+2.7%	✗
Jun 13	Iowa Stormboar vs Club 333 team1 pre patch wr -0.414 Glicko2 rating +0.385 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.355	T3	Iowa Stormboar	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 13	Third Prime vs Xiaoma team1 pre patch wr -0.380 opening kill rate diff -0.299 team1 avoid rate ancient 90d +0.279	T3	Xiaoma	52.5%	+5.0%	✓
Jun 13	Wanted Goons vs F5 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.398 team2 glicko2 rating -0.279 Overpass Elo +0.244	T3	Wanted Goons	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 13	ARCRED vs Acend team1 elo dust2 -0.297 team2 glicko2 rating -0.270 team2 avoid rate nuke 90d +0.247	T3	Acend	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 12	Washed vs Invicta team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.367 Overpass Elo +0.281 team2 glicko2 rating -0.263	T3	Washed	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 12	Sashi Academy vs STATE team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.487 team2 elo overpass +0.439 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.433	T3	STATE	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 12	XI vs MASQ Overpass Elo +0.301 opening kill rate diff -0.271 team1 avoid rate mirage 90d +0.217	T3	XI	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 12	struggletony vs MASONIC team2 elo mirage -0.391 team2 avoid rate mirage 90d -0.344 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.314	T3	MASONIC	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 12	MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.481 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.467 team1 pre patch wr -0.326	T3	MARKandLARRY	51.3%	+2.7%	✓
Jun 12	brazylijski luz vs HYPERSPIRIT team2 elo nuke -0.647 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.389 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.337	T2	HYPERSPIRIT	57.1%	+14.3%	✓
Jun 12	DETONATE vs Iowa Stormboar team2 pre patch wr +0.483 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.363 Overpass Elo +0.270	T3	DETONATE	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 12	Marsborne vs F5 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.294 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.278 team1 match hour local -0.269	T3	Marsborne	51.3%	+2.7%	✓
Jun 12	Wanted Goons vs Overtake Sector team2 pre patch wr +0.461 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.380 opening kill rate diff -0.282	T3	Wanted Goons	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 12	Club 333 vs Festina Lente opening kill rate diff -0.291 Overpass Elo +0.271 Inferno pick rate +0.207	T3	Club 333	54.4%	+8.7%	✗
Jun 11	Aurora vs Monte team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.459 opening kill rate diff -0.277 Overpass Elo +0.273	T1	Aurora	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 11	Falcons vs G2 team2 pre patch wr +0.464 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.294 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.279	T1	Falcons	71.3%	+42.5%	✓
Jun 11	Natus Vincere vs Spirit team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.461 Overpass Elo +0.281 team2 wr nuke 90d +0.231	T1	Natus Vincere	79.5%	+59.1%	✗
Jun 11	Vitality vs FUT team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.438 Overpass Elo +0.280 team2 avoid rate inferno 90d -0.195	T1	Vitality	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 11	The MongolZ vs BetBoom team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.428 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.361 opening kill rate diff -0.250	T1	The MongolZ	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 11	FURIA vs B8 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.380 Overpass Elo +0.277 team2 elo nuke +0.262	T1	FURIA	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 11	Walczaki vs INOX Division team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.489 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.452 Glicko2 rating +0.410	T3	Walczaki	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 11	Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS PL team2 pre patch wr +0.446 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.363 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.356	T3	Falcons Force	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 11	MOUZ vs Legacy team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.373 Glicko2 rating +0.342 team2 avoid rate overpass 90d +0.275	T1	MOUZ	79.5%	+59.1%	✓
Jun 11	KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.436 opening kill rate diff -0.262 team2 wr nuke 90d +0.256	T2	KOLESIE	54.4%	+8.7%	✓
Jun 11	PARIVISION vs 9z team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.460 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.424 opening kill rate diff -0.273	T1	9z	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 11	Lazer Cats vs GenOne team2 elo dust2 -0.744 team2 glicko2 rating -0.448 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.380	T2	GenOne	73.5%	+47.0%	✓
Jun 10	illwill vs G2 Ares team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.514 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.405 Glicko2 rating +0.388	T2	illwill	54.4%	+8.7%	✗
Jun 10	Wingman vs eternal premium team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.351 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.330 Overpass Elo +0.283	T3	Wingman	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 10	B8 Academy vs DONSTU team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.437 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.430 Glicko2 rating +0.379	T3	B8 Academy	64.0%	+28.0%	✗
Jun 10	NEW VISION vs XI team2 elo overpass -0.359 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.352 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.303	T3	XI	61.1%	+22.2%	✓
Jun 10	KOLESIE vs Leo team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.364 team1 elo dust2 -0.223 team1 elo nuke +0.212	T2	KOLESIE	51.3%	+2.7%	✗
Jun 10	G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.445 team2 elo inferno -0.319 Glicko2 rating +0.317	T2	G2 Ares	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 10	Ursa vs HEROIC Academy Tier-1 Elo -0.324 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.292 team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.257	T2	Ursa	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 10	SPARTA vs Atreides Glicko2 rating +0.415 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.397 Tier-1 Elo -0.313	T3	SPARTA	81.8%	+63.6%	✓
Jun 10	aAa vs RUSTEC Glicko2 rating +0.461 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.440 team1 pre patch wr -0.365	T2	aAa	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 10	Ground Zero vs Masked Regime team1 avoid rate overpass 90d -0.345 opening kill rate diff -0.278 team1 elo nuke -0.219	T3	Masked Regime	55.2%	+10.3%	✗
Jun 10	SPARTA vs brazylijski luz Glicko2 rating +0.412 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.325 Tier-1 Elo -0.323	T2	SPARTA	64.0%	+28.0%	✓
Jun 10	Ding Cuts vs DXA Glicko2 rating +0.377 team2 opening kill rate 90d +0.330 team1 avoid rate nuke 90d -0.282	T3	Ding Cuts	71.3%	+42.5%	✓

LIVE PERFORMANCE

Predictions 239

Accuracy 59.6%

Shadow P&L 0.0u

Avg AUC (live) 0.7625

CALIBRATION QUALITY

Brier Score 0.2528

Quality Poor

Brier score 0=perfect, 0.25=random. Lower is better.

DATA COVERAGE

First prediction Jun 10, 2026

Last prediction Jun 22, 2026

Active span 12d

Avg / week 127.2 preds

SELECTOR ROLE

Sub-model — feeds Economy features into TITAN ensemble.

VERSION HISTORY

v1 2026-Q2

Launch: CT/T + buy-type stratification from 500k+ pro rounds

v2 2026-Q2

Demo-validated subset; completeness sample weights; T1 AUC 0.7625

ALL MODELS

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