TITAN — CQ-GESUS Models

PREDICTIONS SHADOW BETS MODELS VERIFY

TITAN v2 DEPLOYED

Match Outcome · Ensemble

The meta-ensemble. Strongest overall match predictor.

AUC (T1)

0.742

held-out test set

239

Predictions

21 pending

57.8%

Accuracy

218 settled

-12.0%

Shadow ROI

-248.5u

54.1%

Bet Hit Rate

183 bets

ABOUT THIS MODEL

TITAN is the meta-ensemble that stacks ORACLE and PHANTOM into a single, calibrated match-outcome probability. It uses 15 meta-features — base model probabilities, model agreement, Elo-implied probability, and match format context — trained on a strict out-of-sample validation window (Sep 2025 – Feb 2026). TITAN is the flagship prediction and drives the shadow bet system.

PERFORMANCE CHARTS

Accuracy Over Time

Solid=cumulative · dashed=rolling-20 · gray=50% baseline

Reliability Diagram

Bars=actual win rate per confidence bucket · dashed=perfect calibration

Cumulative Shadow P&L

Cumulative units across all shadow bets for this model

TOP FEATURE DRIVERS

Ensemble mean probability 39%

Weighted average of ORACLE and PHANTOM base probabilities

PHANTOM confidence 16%

PHANTOM's distance from 50% — high = strong demo signal

PHANTOM match probability 13%

Economy-specialist model's win probability

ORACLE match probability 8%

Core stats-based win probability

Model agreement 7%

Standard deviation of base model predictions

ORACLE confidence 6%

ORACLE's distance from 50% — certainty signal

Elo win probability 5%

Simple Elo-derived win probability

Match format (BO3/BO5) 4%

Longer formats favour stronger teams

Feature importances reflect normalized split gain. Values are approximate.

HOW TO INTERPRET

TITAN probability represents CounterQuant's strongest pre-match signal. A 65% TITAN probability means the model rates this team as substantially favoured when accounting for all available tactical, historical, and market signals. Compare against NEXUS (market-blended) to identify mispricings.

PER-TIER BREAKDOWN

Tier	Preds	Correct	Acc
T1	32	21	65.6%
T2	71	40	56.3%
T3	115	65	56.5%

MONTHLY PERFORMANCE

Month	Preds	Correct	Acc
Jun 2026	218	126	57.8%

FULL PREDICTION HISTORY (218 settled)

Date	Matchup	Tier	Predicted	Win Prob	Edge	Result
Jun 22	Chicken Coop vs Club 333 Ensemble mean +0.637 PHANTOM +0.221 Elo win prob +0.061	T3	Chicken Coop	75.0%	+50.1%	✓
Jun 21	QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Ensemble mean +0.461 PHANTOM +0.223 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	QUAZAR	73.6%	+47.3%	✓
Jun 21	ex-RUBY vs TDK Ensemble mean +0.212 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	ex-RUBY	58.8%	+17.6%	✗
Jun 21	FURIA vs Falcons Ensemble mean -0.284 Elo win prob +0.027 ORACLE -0.017	T1	Falcons	61.9%	+23.9%	✓
Jun 21	ENERGYULTRA vs roamsfiest Ensemble mean +0.379 PHANTOM +0.127 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	ENERGYULTRA	64.5%	+28.9%	✗
Jun 21	FOKUS vs Phantom Ensemble mean +0.817 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	FOKUS	81.4%	+62.8%	✗
Jun 21	TDK vs 100 Thieves Ensemble mean +0.864 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	TDK	86.3%	+72.7%	✓
Jun 21	Team Germany vs Team Poland Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Team Germany	81.4%	+62.8%	✓
Jun 21	ReThink vs roamsfiest Ensemble mean +0.213 PHANTOM +0.074 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	ReThink	57.1%	+14.3%	✓
Jun 21	Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY Ensemble mean -0.217 Elo win prob +0.111 PHANTOM -0.058	T2	ex-RUBY	58.9%	+17.7%	✓
Jun 21	Echo vs K27 Ensemble mean +0.409 PHANTOM +0.126 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	Echo	65.8%	+31.6%	✗
Jun 21	Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA Ensemble mean +0.225 PHANTOM +0.103 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Lilmix	58.4%	+16.8%	✗
Jun 21	INFINITE vs INOX Division Ensemble mean +0.380 PHANTOM +0.214 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	INFINITE	67.2%	+34.3%	✓
Jun 21	Chicken Coop vs Overtake Sector Ensemble mean +0.817 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Chicken Coop	81.4%	+62.8%	✓
Jun 21	Villainous vs Club 333 Ensemble mean +0.213 PHANTOM +0.100 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Villainous	58.2%	+16.4%	✗
Jun 20	Spirit vs Falcons Ensemble mean +0.802 PHANTOM +0.225 Elo win prob +0.121	T1	Spirit	82.1%	+64.3%	✓
Jun 20	QUAZAR vs ReThink Ensemble mean +0.459 PHANTOM +0.223 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	QUAZAR	73.5%	+46.9%	✓
Jun 20	GenOne vs 100 Thieves Ensemble mean +0.857 PHANTOM +0.394 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	GenOne	85.7%	+71.4%	✗
Jun 20	Phantom vs Walczaki Ensemble mean +0.506 PHANTOM +0.400 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	Phantom	81.2%	+62.3%	✓
Jun 20	Fire Flux vs WBT Ensemble mean +0.375 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Fire Flux	64.3%	+28.6%	✓
Jun 20	Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY Ensemble mean +0.209 PHANTOM +0.133 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	Gentle Mates	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 20	K27 vs Acend Ensemble mean +0.380 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	K27	64.9%	+29.7%	✓
Jun 20	Aurora vs FURIA Ensemble mean +0.905 PHANTOM +0.400 ORACLE +0.305	T1	Aurora	89.0%	+78.0%	✗
Jun 20	Echo vs Inner Circle Ensemble mean +0.242 PHANTOM +0.101 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	Echo	59.1%	+18.2%	✓
Jun 20	1win vs Virtus.pro Ensemble mean +0.422 PHANTOM +0.197 Elo win prob -0.146	T2	1win	66.0%	+32.0%	✗
Jun 20	KOLESIE vs INOX Division Ensemble mean +0.863 PHANTOM +0.390 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	KOLESIE	85.8%	+71.6%	✓
Jun 20	FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Ensemble mean +0.814 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	FOKUS	81.2%	+62.5%	✓
Jun 20	Nemesis vs TDK Ensemble mean +0.214 PHANTOM +0.101 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	Nemesis	58.2%	+16.4%	✓
Jun 20	INFINITE vs Walczaki Ensemble mean +0.507 PHANTOM +0.400 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	INFINITE	81.2%	+62.3%	✗
Jun 20	Club 333 vs Playing for fun Ensemble mean +0.154 PHANTOM confidence -0.030 Elo win prob +0.028	T3	Club 333	51.8%	+3.7%	✓
Jun 20	Chicken Coop vs dice Ensemble mean +0.380 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Chicken Coop	64.9%	+29.7%	✓
Jun 20	Brahmas vs Overtake Sector Ensemble mean +0.817 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Brahmas	81.4%	+62.8%	✗
Jun 20	Villainous vs DETONATE Ensemble mean -0.297 PHANTOM +0.151 Elo win prob +0.039	T3	DETONATE	56.5%	+13.0%	✗
Jun 19	Falcons vs Vitality Ensemble mean +0.365 Elo win prob -0.143 PHANTOM +0.109	T1	Falcons	56.9%	+13.7%	✓
Jun 19	K27 vs Virtus.pro Ensemble mean +0.799 PHANTOM +0.197 Elo win prob -0.147	T2	K27	76.1%	+52.2%	✗
Jun 19	ReThink vs BAKS Ensemble mean +0.637 PHANTOM +0.221 Elo win prob +0.059	T3	ReThink	75.0%	+50.1%	✓
Jun 19	Fire Flux vs NAVI Junior Ensemble mean +0.213 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Fire Flux	59.5%	+18.9%	✓
Jun 19	Arch vs WBT Ensemble mean +0.409 PHANTOM +0.126 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Arch	65.8%	+31.6%	✗
Jun 19	Acend vs BET-M Ensemble mean +0.859 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	Acend	86.2%	+72.4%	✓
Jun 19	G2 vs Spirit Ensemble mean -0.197 Elo win prob -0.110 PHANTOM +0.030	T1	Spirit	62.7%	+25.4%	✓
Jun 19	QUAZAR vs Hermine Ensemble mean +0.375 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	QUAZAR	64.3%	+28.6%	✓
Jun 19	1win vs INOX Division Ensemble mean +0.461 PHANTOM +0.211 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	1win	72.8%	+45.6%	✓
Jun 19	WW vs CYBERSHOKE Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.231 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	WW	81.4%	+62.8%	✗
Jun 19	Acend vs INOX Division Ensemble mean +0.461 PHANTOM +0.211 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	Acend	72.8%	+45.6%	✗
Jun 19	K27 vs SHISHKA Ensemble mean +0.376 PHANTOM +0.130 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	K27	64.5%	+29.1%	✓
Jun 19	INFINITE vs ex-RUBY Ensemble mean +0.148 PHANTOM +0.101 Elo win prob +0.036	T2	INFINITE	56.8%	+13.6%	✗
Jun 19	Walczaki vs Oxuji Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.227 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	Walczaki	81.2%	+62.5%	✓
Jun 19	Sashi vs KOLESIE Ensemble mean +0.634 PHANTOM +0.125 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	Sashi	72.2%	+44.4%	✗
Jun 18	100 Thieves vs Leo Ensemble mean +0.212 PHANTOM +0.099 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	100 Thieves	58.2%	+16.4%	✓
Jun 18	Inner Circle vs Spirit Academy Ensemble mean +0.378 PHANTOM +0.127 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	Inner Circle	64.5%	+28.9%	✓
Jun 18	9z vs FURIA Ensemble mean +0.857 ORACLE +0.310 PHANTOM +0.221	T1	9z	85.9%	+71.9%	✗
Jun 18	Nemesis vs Bebop Ensemble mean +0.861 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	Nemesis	86.2%	+72.4%	✓
Jun 18	Echo vs KOLESIE Ensemble mean -0.284 PHANTOM +0.029 Elo win prob +0.026	T2	KOLESIE	61.0%	+22.0%	✗
Jun 18	INFINITE vs Oxuji Ensemble mean +0.817 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	INFINITE	81.4%	+62.8%	✓
Jun 18	Aurora vs BetBoom Ensemble mean +0.454 Model agreement +0.277 ORACLE +0.215	T1	Aurora	77.8%	+55.6%	✓
Jun 18	HOTU vs GenOne Ensemble mean +0.368 PHANTOM +0.132 Elo win prob +0.120	T2	HOTU	66.6%	+33.2%	✗
Jun 18	JiJieHao vs Phantom Ensemble mean +0.147 PHANTOM +0.074 Elo win prob +0.035	T2	JiJieHao	55.7%	+11.4%	✗
Jun 18	TDK vs Walczaki Ensemble mean +0.863 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	TDK	86.3%	+72.7%	✗
Jun 18	Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE Ensemble mean +0.380 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	Gentle Mates	64.9%	+29.7%	✓
Jun 18	Ground Zero vs Rooster PHANTOM +0.227 Ensemble mean +0.151 Elo win prob +0.044	T3	Ground Zero	64.2%	+28.4%	✗
Jun 18	FOKUS vs Noir Verse Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	FOKUS	81.4%	+62.8%	✓
Jun 18	TDK vs Ursa Ensemble mean +0.863 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	TDK	86.3%	+72.7%	✓
Jun 17	KOLESIE vs illwill Ensemble mean +0.464 PHANTOM +0.222 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	KOLESIE	73.9%	+47.8%	✗
Jun 17	Nuclear TigeRES vs Nemesis Ensemble mean +0.462 PHANTOM +0.223 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Nuclear TigeRES	73.6%	+47.3%	✓
Jun 17	SPARTA vs Bebop Ensemble mean +0.858 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	SPARTA	86.1%	+72.3%	✗
Jun 17	SPARTA vs INOX Division Ensemble mean +0.503 PHANTOM +0.370 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	SPARTA	79.7%	+59.4%	✗
Jun 17	TDK vs Nemesis Ensemble mean +0.863 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T3	TDK	86.3%	+72.7%	✓
Jun 17	PsychoFace vs Virtus.pro Ensemble mean +0.798 PHANTOM +0.203 Elo win prob -0.147	T2	PsychoFace	76.3%	+52.6%	✗
Jun 17	Acend vs Lavked Ensemble mean +0.242 PHANTOM +0.105 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	Acend	59.1%	+18.2%	✓
Jun 17	Rooster vs DXA Ensemble mean +0.861 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T3	Rooster	86.2%	+72.4%	✓
Jun 17	Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 Ensemble mean +0.210 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Nuclear TigeRES	59.5%	+18.9%	✓
Jun 16	KOLESIE vs GenOne Ensemble mean +0.464 PHANTOM +0.223 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	KOLESIE	73.9%	+47.8%	✗
Jun 16	Nemesis vs INFINITE Ensemble mean +0.636 PHANTOM +0.222 Elo win prob +0.059	T3	Nemesis	75.0%	+50.1%	✓
Jun 16	PsychoFace vs Leo Ensemble mean +0.380 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	PsychoFace	64.9%	+29.7%	✗
Jun 16	K27 vs 100 Thieves Ensemble mean +0.857 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T3	K27	86.1%	+72.3%	✓
Jun 16	illwill vs ex-RUBY Ensemble mean +0.379 PHANTOM +0.127 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	illwill	64.5%	+28.9%	✗
Jun 16	EAC vs KOLESIE Ensemble mean +0.153 Elo win prob -0.127 PHANTOM +0.090	T2	EAC	50.4%	+0.7%	✗
Jun 16	Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES Ensemble mean +0.635 PHANTOM +0.220 Elo win prob +0.061	T3	Gentle Mates	75.0%	+50.1%	✗
Jun 16	MARKandLARRY vs DXA Ensemble mean +0.379 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	MARKandLARRY	64.9%	+29.7%	✗
Jun 16	Sashi vs HYPERSPIRIT Ensemble mean -0.287 Elo win prob +0.029 PHANTOM +0.029	T2	HYPERSPIRIT	61.0%	+22.0%	✗
Jun 16	HOTU vs TDK Ensemble mean +0.382 PHANTOM +0.093 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	HOTU	63.6%	+27.1%	✗
Jun 16	Ground Zero vs Rooster PHANTOM +0.260 Ensemble mean -0.230 Elo win prob +0.044	T3	Rooster	50.2%	+0.3%	✗
Jun 15	ReThink vs Wingman Ensemble mean +0.857 PHANTOM +0.394 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T3	ReThink	85.7%	+71.4%	✓
Jun 15	Natus Vincere vs G2 Ensemble mean -0.283 Elo win prob +0.115 PHANTOM +0.027	T1	G2	57.7%	+15.4%	✓
Jun 15	SPARTA vs G2 Ares Ensemble mean +0.859 PHANTOM +0.394 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	SPARTA	85.8%	+71.6%	✓
Jun 15	INFINITE vs ex-RUBY Ensemble mean +0.218 Elo win prob -0.127 PHANTOM +0.090	T3	INFINITE	51.8%	+3.7%	✓
Jun 15	BetBoom vs FUT Ensemble mean +0.810 PHANTOM +0.231 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T1	BetBoom	81.1%	+62.2%	✓
Jun 15	Virtus.pro vs brazylijski luz Ensemble mean +0.214 Elo win prob +0.123 PHANTOM +0.103	T2	Virtus.pro	61.3%	+22.6%	✓
Jun 15	Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Ensemble mean +0.379 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Nemesis	64.9%	+29.7%	✓
Jun 15	Bebop vs RUSTEC Ensemble mean +0.211 PHANTOM +0.102 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	Bebop	58.2%	+16.4%	✗
Jun 15	100 Thieves vs Betclic Ensemble mean +0.810 PHANTOM +0.231 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	100 Thieves	81.1%	+62.2%	✓
Jun 15	9z vs The MongolZ Ensemble mean +0.632 PHANTOM +0.091 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T1	9z	70.8%	+41.6%	✓
Jun 15	Walczaki vs G2 Ares Ensemble mean +0.373 PHANTOM +0.129 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	Walczaki	64.3%	+28.6%	✓
Jun 15	Gentle Mates vs Acend Ensemble mean +0.380 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Gentle Mates	64.9%	+29.7%	✗
Jun 15	Rooster vs DXA Ensemble mean +0.368 PHANTOM +0.132 Elo win prob +0.114	T3	Rooster	66.1%	+32.3%	✓
Jun 15	Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY Ensemble mean +0.464 PHANTOM +0.222 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Ground Zero	73.9%	+47.8%	✓
Jun 15	TDK vs Young Ninjas Ensemble mean +0.798 PHANTOM +0.207 Elo win prob -0.106	T2	TDK	77.3%	+54.7%	✓
Jun 15	Club 333 vs Olympus Ensemble mean -0.203 Elo win prob +0.028 PHANTOM +0.018	T3	Olympus	58.6%	+17.3%	✗
Jun 15	Brahmas vs Omen Ensemble mean +0.407 PHANTOM +0.126 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Brahmas	65.8%	+31.6%	✓
Jun 15	Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar Ensemble mean +0.147 PHANTOM +0.100 Elo win prob +0.038	T3	Marsborne	56.8%	+13.6%	✓
Jun 14	Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar Ensemble mean +0.210 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Festina Lente	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 14	Natus Vincere vs Falcons Ensemble mean +0.328 PHANTOM +0.131 PHANTOM confidence -0.056	T1	Natus Vincere	63.2%	+26.3%	✗
Jun 14	Metizport vs Alliance Ensemble mean +0.367 PHANTOM +0.133 Elo win prob +0.125	T3	Metizport	67.0%	+34.0%	✗
Jun 14	Arch vs OLDBOYS PL Ensemble mean +0.379 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Arch	64.9%	+29.7%	✓
Jun 14	Ursa vs GenOne Ensemble mean -0.284 Elo win prob +0.111 ORACLE -0.017	T2	GenOne	58.9%	+17.9%	✓
Jun 14	illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES Ensemble mean +0.857 PHANTOM +0.381 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T3	illwill	85.3%	+70.7%	✗
Jun 14	G2 vs Legacy Ensemble mean +0.375 PHANTOM +0.225 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T1	G2	67.6%	+35.3%	✓
Jun 14	BetBoom vs Vitality Ensemble mean +0.474 PHANTOM +0.397 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T1	BetBoom	80.5%	+60.9%	✗
Jun 14	Aurora vs 9z Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.231 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T1	Aurora	81.4%	+62.8%	✓
Jun 14	INFINITE vs Virtus.pro Ensemble mean +0.325 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.056	T2	INFINITE	61.4%	+22.8%	✓
Jun 14	fnatic vs Alliance Ensemble mean +0.210 PHANTOM +0.138 Elo win prob +0.126	T3	fnatic	62.7%	+25.4%	✗
Jun 14	ex-RUBY vs INOX Division Ensemble mean +0.499 PHANTOM +0.377 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T2	ex-RUBY	80.3%	+60.7%	✗
Jun 14	INFURITY vs VanirQuick Ensemble mean -0.392 PHANTOM -0.225 Model agreement -0.025	T3	VanirQuick	72.3%	+44.6%	✗
Jun 14	1win vs TDK Ensemble mean +0.208 PHANTOM +0.136 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	1win	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 14	MOUZ vs FUT Ensemble mean +0.208 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T1	MOUZ	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 14	The MongolZ vs Monte Ensemble mean +0.213 PHANTOM +0.100 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T1	The MongolZ	58.2%	+16.4%	✓
Jun 14	Nexus vs Alliance Ensemble mean +0.375 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Nexus	64.3%	+28.6%	✗
Jun 14	Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Ensemble mean +0.213 PHANTOM +0.135 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	Nuclear TigeRES	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 14	SPARTA vs Leo Ensemble mean +0.284 PHANTOM +0.231 PHANTOM confidence +0.063	T2	SPARTA	68.8%	+37.6%	✓
Jun 14	fnatic vs Metizport Ensemble mean -0.294 PHANTOM +0.151 Elo win prob +0.036	T3	Metizport	56.5%	+13.0%	✓
Jun 14	HOTU vs KOLESIE Ensemble mean +0.808 PHANTOM +0.223 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	HOTU	80.2%	+60.4%	✓
Jun 14	illwill vs Virtus.pro Ensemble mean +0.213 PHANTOM +0.131 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	illwill	57.9%	+15.8%	✓
Jun 14	K27 vs Walczaki Ensemble mean +0.408 PHANTOM +0.126 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	K27	65.8%	+31.6%	✓
Jun 14	Nexus vs Noir Verse Ensemble mean +0.636 PHANTOM +0.209 Elo win prob +0.059	T3	Nexus	74.2%	+48.4%	✓
Jun 14	BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	BASEMENT BOYS	81.4%	+62.8%	✗
Jun 14	Marsborne vs Festina Lente Ensemble mean -0.286 Elo win prob +0.027 ORACLE -0.017	T3	Festina Lente	61.9%	+23.9%	✗
Jun 14	Omen vs Xiaoma Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.218 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Omen	80.8%	+61.7%	✓
Jun 14	raisedbypixels vs Omen Ensemble mean -0.203 Elo win prob +0.028 PHANTOM +0.018	T3	Omen	58.6%	+17.3%	✓
Jun 14	Alliance vs Nexus Ensemble mean +0.408 PHANTOM +0.126 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Alliance	65.8%	+31.6%	✗
Jun 14	Natus Vincere vs The MongolZ Ensemble mean +0.404 PHANTOM +0.124 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T1	Natus Vincere	65.0%	+30.1%	✓
Jun 14	By Legends vs Gatorian Ensemble mean +0.817 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	By Legends	81.4%	+62.8%	✗
Jun 14	PURE vs Nexus Ensemble mean +0.150 PHANTOM +0.101 Elo win prob +0.034	T3	PURE	56.8%	+13.6%	✗
Jun 14	Falcons vs Monte Ensemble mean +0.635 PHANTOM +0.126 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T1	Falcons	72.2%	+44.4%	✓
Jun 14	Marsborne vs Overtake Sector Ensemble mean -0.210 PHANTOM +0.138 Elo win prob +0.038	T3	Overtake Sector	53.9%	+7.9%	✗
Jun 14	EAC vs Noir Verse Ensemble mean +0.226 PHANTOM +0.105 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	EAC	58.4%	+16.8%	✓
Jun 14	Aurora vs G2 Ensemble mean +0.864 PHANTOM +0.411 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T1	Aurora	86.3%	+72.7%	✓
Jun 14	Gatorian vs EAC Ensemble mean +0.208 PHANTOM +0.136 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Gatorian	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 14	PARIVISION vs Legacy Ensemble mean +0.402 PHANTOM +0.129 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T1	PARIVISION	65.2%	+30.4%	✗
Jun 14	BASEMENT BOYS vs By Legends Ensemble mean +0.380 PHANTOM +0.225 Elo win prob +0.059	T3	BASEMENT BOYS	68.2%	+36.3%	✓
Jun 14	Vitality vs MOUZ Ensemble mean +0.908 PHANTOM +0.396 ORACLE +0.207	T1	Vitality	88.6%	+77.3%	✓
Jun 14	BetBoom vs FURIA Ensemble mean +0.380 PHANTOM +0.214 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T1	BetBoom	67.2%	+34.3%	✗
Jun 14	LAG vs Mount Olympus Ensemble mean +0.367 PHANTOM +0.132 Elo win prob +0.125	T3	LAG	67.0%	+34.0%	✗
Jun 14	Wanted Goons vs Mount Olympus Ensemble mean +0.373 PHANTOM +0.129 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Wanted Goons	64.3%	+28.6%	✗
Jun 14	DETONATE vs Iowa Stormboar Ensemble mean +0.209 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	DETONATE	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 14	Spirit vs 9z Ensemble mean -0.212 PHANTOM +0.173 Elo win prob +0.039	T1	9z	52.9%	+5.8%	✗
Jun 13	Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake Sector Ensemble mean +0.465 PHANTOM +0.223 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Iowa Stormboar	73.9%	+47.8%	✓
Jun 13	Alliance vs EAC Ensemble mean +0.464 PHANTOM +0.221 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Alliance	73.9%	+47.8%	✓
Jun 13	DETONATE vs Wanted Goons Ensemble mean -0.299 PHANTOM +0.155 Elo win prob +0.038	T3	Wanted Goons	56.5%	+13.0%	✗
Jun 13	aimclub vs Noir Verse Ensemble mean +0.228 PHANTOM +0.106 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	aimclub	57.6%	+15.1%	✗
Jun 13	MASQ vs STATE Ensemble mean +0.212 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	MASQ	59.0%	+18.0%	✗
Jun 13	KOLESIE vs Bebop Ensemble mean +0.464 PHANTOM +0.222 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	KOLESIE	73.9%	+47.8%	✓
Jun 13	Washed vs MASONIC Ensemble mean -0.293 Elo win prob +0.042 PHANTOM +0.024	T3	MASONIC	60.8%	+21.7%	✓
Jun 13	Noir Verse vs Entropy Ensemble mean +0.210 PHANTOM +0.135 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Noir Verse	59.5%	+18.9%	✓
Jun 13	Nexus vs Metizport Ensemble mean +0.213 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Nexus	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 13	6666 vs Alliance Ensemble mean +0.212 PHANTOM +0.135 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	6666	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 13	The Last Resort vs Dripmen Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	The Last Resort	81.4%	+62.8%	✓
Jun 13	aimclub vs PURE Ensemble mean -0.287 Elo win prob +0.025 ORACLE -0.016	T3	PURE	62.0%	+24.1%	✗
Jun 13	fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS Ensemble mean -0.298 PHANTOM +0.153 Elo win prob +0.036	T3	BASEMENT BOYS	56.5%	+13.0%	✗
Jun 13	PsychoFace vs G2 Ares Ensemble mean +0.810 PHANTOM +0.231 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T2	PsychoFace	81.1%	+62.2%	✓
Jun 13	Metizport vs EAC Ensemble mean +0.492 PHANTOM +0.396 PHANTOM confidence +0.185	T3	Metizport	81.9%	+63.8%	✓
Jun 13	STATE vs MASONIC Ensemble mean -0.201 Elo win prob +0.104 PHANTOM +0.016	T3	MASONIC	56.3%	+12.5%	✗
Jun 13	RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy Ensemble mean +0.285 PHANTOM +0.226 Elo win prob +0.123	T2	RUSTEC	71.1%	+42.1%	✓
Jun 13	BASEMENT BOYS vs Entropy Ensemble mean +0.464 PHANTOM +0.222 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	BASEMENT BOYS	73.9%	+47.8%	✓
Jun 13	SAAB vs PURE Ensemble mean -0.396 PHANTOM -0.220 Elo win prob +0.030	T3	PURE	72.1%	+44.3%	✓
Jun 13	MASQ vs Washed Ensemble mean +0.379 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	MASQ	64.9%	+29.7%	✗
Jun 13	fnatic vs aimclub Ensemble mean +0.367 PHANTOM +0.134 Elo win prob +0.125	T3	fnatic	67.0%	+34.0%	✓
Jun 13	atputies vs Noir Verse Ensemble mean +0.233 PHANTOM +0.105 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	atputies	58.9%	+17.8%	✗
Jun 13	Minkens finest vs 6666 Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Minkens finest	81.4%	+62.8%	✗
Jun 13	B8 vs FUT Ensemble mean +0.212 PHANTOM +0.136 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T1	B8	59.5%	+18.9%	✗
Jun 13	Oxuji vs Misa Ensemble mean +0.233 PHANTOM +0.226 Elo win prob +0.123	T2	Oxuji	66.2%	+32.5%	✓
Jun 13	Entropy vs Gatorian Ensemble mean -0.284 Elo win prob +0.026 PHANTOM +0.025	T3	Gatorian	61.0%	+22.0%	✗
Jun 13	struggletony vs MASONIC Ensemble mean -0.293 Elo win prob +0.039 PHANTOM +0.024	T3	MASONIC	60.8%	+21.7%	✓
Jun 13	Sashi Academy vs Washed Ensemble mean -0.278 Elo win prob -0.041 ORACLE -0.018	T3	Washed	63.7%	+27.3%	✓
Jun 13	aimclub vs 6666 Ensemble mean -0.358 PHANTOM -0.208 PHANTOM confidence -0.025	T3	6666	72.3%	+44.5%	✗
Jun 13	Metizport vs atputies Ensemble mean +0.378 PHANTOM +0.222 Elo win prob +0.058	T3	Metizport	67.9%	+35.7%	✓
Jun 13	Oxuji vs brazylijski luz Ensemble mean +0.211 PHANTOM +0.137 Elo win prob +0.126	T2	Oxuji	62.7%	+25.4%	✗
Jun 13	Alliance vs SAAB Ensemble mean +0.408 PHANTOM +0.126 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Alliance	65.8%	+31.6%	✓
Jun 13	fnatic vs Minkens finest Ensemble mean +0.147 PHANTOM +0.101 Elo win prob +0.038	T3	fnatic	56.8%	+13.6%	✓
Jun 13	F5 vs Wanted Goons Ensemble mean +0.221 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	F5	59.8%	+19.6%	✗
Jun 13	DETONATE vs Festina Lente Ensemble mean +0.224 PHANTOM +0.105 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	DETONATE	58.6%	+17.2%	✗
Jun 13	Iowa Stormboar vs Club 333 Ensemble mean +0.376 PHANTOM +0.127 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Iowa Stormboar	64.1%	+28.2%	✓
Jun 13	Third Prime vs Xiaoma Ensemble mean +0.147 PHANTOM +0.105 Elo win prob +0.036	T3	Third Prime	56.8%	+13.6%	✗
Jun 13	Wanted Goons vs F5 Ensemble mean +0.430 PHANTOM +0.214 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Wanted Goons	71.7%	+43.4%	✓
Jun 13	ARCRED vs Acend Ensemble mean -0.283 Elo win prob +0.104 PHANTOM +0.027	T3	Acend	53.5%	+7.0%	✓
Jun 12	Washed vs Invicta Ensemble mean +0.817 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	Washed	70.4%	+40.7%	✓
Jun 12	Sashi Academy vs STATE Ensemble mean -0.197 Elo win prob -0.107 PHANTOM +0.031	T3	STATE	53.5%	+7.0%	✓
Jun 12	struggletony vs MASONIC Ensemble mean -0.287 Elo win prob +0.039 PHANTOM +0.022	T3	MASONIC	53.5%	+7.0%	✓
Jun 12	XI vs MASQ Ensemble mean +0.367 Elo win prob -0.143 PHANTOM +0.107	T3	XI	52.0%	+4.1%	✓
Jun 12	brazylijski luz vs HYPERSPIRIT Ensemble mean -0.297 PHANTOM +0.125 Elo win prob +0.033	T2	HYPERSPIRIT	53.5%	+7.0%	✓
Jun 12	MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal Ensemble mean -0.295 PHANTOM +0.156 Elo win prob +0.034	T3	Abyssal	52.6%	+5.3%	✗
Jun 12	DETONATE vs Iowa Stormboar Ensemble mean +0.817 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T3	DETONATE	70.4%	+40.7%	✓
Jun 12	Marsborne vs F5 Ensemble mean +0.146 PHANTOM +0.100 Elo win prob +0.038	T3	Marsborne	52.0%	+4.1%	✓
Jun 12	Wanted Goons vs Overtake Sector Ensemble mean +0.375 PHANTOM +0.128 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T3	Wanted Goons	57.7%	+15.3%	✗
Jun 12	Club 333 vs Festina Lente Ensemble mean +0.244 PHANTOM +0.100 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Club 333	55.6%	+11.1%	✗
Jun 11	Natus Vincere vs Spirit Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T1	Natus Vincere	70.4%	+40.7%	✗
Jun 11	Aurora vs Monte Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.218 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T1	Aurora	70.4%	+40.7%	✓
Jun 11	Falcons vs G2 Ensemble mean +0.761 PHANTOM +0.229 Elo win prob +0.061	T1	Falcons	64.8%	+29.7%	✓
Jun 11	FURIA vs B8 Ensemble mean +0.815 PHANTOM +0.231 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T1	FURIA	70.4%	+40.7%	✓
Jun 11	Vitality vs FUT Ensemble mean +0.816 PHANTOM +0.218 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T1	Vitality	70.4%	+40.7%	✓
Jun 11	The MongolZ vs BetBoom Ensemble mean +0.379 PHANTOM +0.127 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T1	The MongolZ	57.7%	+15.3%	✗
Jun 11	Walczaki vs INOX Division Ensemble mean +0.212 PHANTOM +0.132 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Walczaki	53.2%	+6.4%	✓
Jun 11	Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS PL Ensemble mean -0.278 PHANTOM +0.178 Elo win prob +0.039	T3	OLDBOYS PL	52.6%	+5.3%	✓
Jun 11	MOUZ vs Legacy Ensemble mean +0.817 PHANTOM +0.229 PHANTOM confidence +0.064	T1	MOUZ	70.4%	+40.7%	✓
Jun 11	KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro Ensemble mean +0.381 PHANTOM +0.099 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	KOLESIE	57.7%	+15.3%	✓
Jun 11	PARIVISION vs 9z Ensemble mean -0.203 Elo win prob +0.028 ORACLE -0.016	T1	9z	53.5%	+7.0%	✓
Jun 11	Lazer Cats vs GenOne Ensemble mean -0.364 PHANTOM -0.208 Elo win prob +0.029	T2	GenOne	66.4%	+32.8%	✓
Jun 10	illwill vs G2 Ares Ensemble mean +0.214 PHANTOM +0.105 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	illwill	53.2%	+6.4%	✗
Jun 10	B8 Academy vs DONSTU Ensemble mean -0.279 PHANTOM +0.178 Elo win prob +0.037	T3	DONSTU	52.6%	+5.3%	✓
Jun 10	Wingman vs eternal premium Ensemble mean +0.208 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T3	Wingman	55.6%	+11.1%	✓
Jun 10	NEW VISION vs XI Ensemble mean -0.202 Elo win prob +0.115 PHANTOM +0.017	T3	XI	52.6%	+5.3%	✓
Jun 10	KOLESIE vs Leo Ensemble mean +0.223 PHANTOM +0.098 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	KOLESIE	53.2%	+6.4%	✗
Jun 10	G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas Ensemble mean +0.225 PHANTOM +0.134 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	G2 Ares	55.6%	+11.1%	✓
Jun 10	Ursa vs HEROIC Academy Ensemble mean +0.210 PHANTOM +0.139 Elo win prob +0.126	T2	Ursa	55.6%	+11.1%	✓
Jun 10	SPARTA vs Atreides Ensemble mean +0.277 PHANTOM +0.224 PHANTOM confidence +0.063	T3	SPARTA	57.7%	+15.3%	✓
Jun 10	Ground Zero vs Masked Regime Ensemble mean -0.299 PHANTOM +0.152 Elo win prob +0.038	T3	Masked Regime	52.6%	+5.3%	✗
Jun 10	aAa vs RUSTEC Ensemble mean +0.373 PHANTOM +0.130 PHANTOM confidence -0.058	T2	aAa	57.7%	+15.3%	✓
Jun 10	Ding Cuts vs DXA Ensemble mean +0.629 PHANTOM +0.219 Elo win prob +0.067	T3	Ding Cuts	64.8%	+29.7%	✓
Jun 10	SPARTA vs brazylijski luz Ensemble mean +0.207 PHANTOM +0.133 PHANTOM confidence -0.054	T2	SPARTA	55.6%	+11.1%	✓

LIVE PERFORMANCE

Predictions 239

Accuracy 57.8%

Shadow ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit Rate 54.1%

Shadow P&L -248.5u

Avg AUC (live) 0.7420

CALIBRATION QUALITY

Brier Score 0.2507

Quality Poor

Brier score 0=perfect, 0.25=random. Lower is better.

DATA COVERAGE

First prediction Jun 10, 2026

Last prediction Jun 22, 2026

Active span 12d

Avg / week 127.2 preds

SELECTOR ROLE

Primary — highest priority in the prediction stack (TITAN > NEXUS > ORACLE).

VERSION HISTORY

v1 2026-Q2

Initial architecture — placeholder, never deployed

v2 2026-Q2

LogReg + XGBoost stacker; 15 meta-features; T1 AUC 0.742

ALL MODELS

TITAN (current)

ORACLE→

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